Citations

1 Rebecca Koenig, “Nonprofits Saw Healthy Growth in the Past Decade,” The Chronicle of Philanthropy, Oct. 24, 2016, link; Brice McKeever, “The Nonprofit Sector in Brief 2015: Public Charities, Giving, and Volunteering,” Oct. 29, 2015, Urban Institute, link

2 Between 2003 and 2013, according to: Brice McKeever, “The Nonprofit Sector in Brief 2015: Public Charities, Giving, and Volunteering,” Oct. 29, 2015, Urban Institute, link

3 2015 State of the Nonprofit Sector, Nonprofit Finance Fund, 2016, link

4 Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

5 Comparison data are drawn from Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link. The figures are all in inflation-adjusted dollars. The 10-year, 25-year, and 40-year averages are shown in Table 1 of this report.

6 The rate of change for the year 2017 is relative to the year 2016. The rate of change for the year 2018 is relative to the year 2017.

7 Amy Sample Ward, “Technology and the Shift to Donor-Centric Fundraising,” npEngage, July 29, 2016, link

8 Comparison data are drawn from Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link.

9 “New Study: Americans Misinformed Before Donating to Charities,” BBB Wise Giving Alliance, Oct. 28, 2014, link; Cynthia Gibson and William Dietel, “What Do Donors Want?,” Nonprofit Quarterly, Sep. 22, 2010, link; “Why Transparency Matters Part 3: How Does One Be Transparent?,” InterAction [blog], Sep. 25, 2014, link; Andy Segedin, “Nonprofits’ Effectiveness, Transparency Impacting Donors,” The Nonprofit Times, Oct. 5, 2016, link; Sean Norris, “80 Nonprofit Trends for 2016,” Nonprofit Pro, Feb. 9, 2016, link

10 Historical averages reported in The Philanthropy Outlook are in comparison to a national charitable dataset going back to 1975, as published by Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link. The figures are all in inflation-adjusted dollars (2015). Prior-year projections are not included in this report.

11 Year-to-year growth in charitable giving is often driven by prior-year growth of specific economic variables. For total giving, this is true of the S&P 500, consumer sentiment, GDP, number of itemizing households, and net worth of households and nonprofits.

12 The relationship between nonprofit net worth and total giving likely reflects a symbiotic relationship between the health of nonprofits that receive personal contributions and giving levels. It could be, as well, that nonprofits with growing assets are more likely to employ sophisticated fundraising programs that positively impact giving by individuals and households.

13 Data for years prior to 2016 come from Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

14 Data for years prior to 2016 come from Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

15 Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2016 come from Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

16 Data for non-itemized giving come from the Philanthropy Panel Study, the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, link, and Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

17 John J. Havens, Mary A. O’Herlihy, and Paul G. Schervish, “Charitable Giving: How Much, by Whom, to What, and How,” The Nonprofit Sector: A Research Handbook, Edition 2, 2006, 542-567; Pamela Wiepking and René Bekkers, “Who Gives? A Literature Review of Predictors of Charitable Giving, Part Two,” Voluntary Sector Review, 3(2), 2012, 217-245; Russell N. James and Deanna L. Sharpe, “The Nature and Causes of the U-Shaped Charitable Giving Profile,” Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 36(2), 2007, 218-238; The Philanthropy Panel Studies, Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, 2010, 2012, link

18 Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2016 come from Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

19 Growth in charitable giving is often driven by prior-year growth of specific economic variables. For foundation giving, this is true for GDP, the S&P 500, consumer sentiment, and net worth of households and nonprofits.

20 This is one hypothesis. Foundations will adopt various strategies given various funding priorities.

21 Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2016 come from Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

22 Growth in charitable giving is often driven by prior-year growth of specific economic variables. For estate giving, this is true for individual/household net worth.

23 Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2016 come from Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

24 Growth in charitable giving is often driven by prior-year growth of specific economic variables. For corporate giving, this is true for consumer sentiment.

25 Note that these are generalizations based on national-level data and are not necessarily indicative of a single corporation’s philanthropy program and strategy.

26 Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2016 come from Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

27 Other factors that will affect education giving, both positively and negatively, include personal consumption expenditures on education, recreation services, nonprofit service output, healthcare services, and rate of consumption. Growth in charitable giving is often driven by prior-year growth of specific economic variables. For giving to education, this is true for personal consumption expenditures on education services, nonprofit service output, recreation services, education, and community school services.

28 René Bekkers and Pamela Wiepking, “A Literature Review of Empirical Studies of Philanthropy: Eight Mechanisms That Drive Charitable Giving,” Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 2010, link

29 Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

30 The projected increases in giving to education in 2017 and 2018 will hold unless substantially large gifts were made in 2016 or will be made in 2017 but not in subsequent years. Information about large gifts comes from Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

31 Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2016 come from Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

32 Other factors that will affect health giving, both positively and negatively, include personal consumption expenditures on foreign travel, nonprofit sales, education services, pharmaceuticals, and clothing. Giving to health will also be negatively affected by total giving in the current year; giving to health appears to rise when giving to other subsectors is low. Growth in charitable giving is often driven by prior-year growth of specific economic variables. For giving to health, this is true for personal consumption expenditures on foreign travel, nonprofit sales, and education services.

33 Mark Rover, The Next Generation of American Giving: The Charitable Habits of Generations Y, X, Baby Boomers, and Matures, Blackbaud, 2013, link

34 Ann Foster, “Consumer Expenditures Vary by Age,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dec. 2015, link; Ann Foster, “A Closer Look at Spending Patterns of Older Americans,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2016, link

35 This percentage reflects only those households that have that expense. Mark Lino, “Expenditures on Children by Families,” U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2013, link

36 Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2016 come from Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

37 Consumer expenditures on foreign travel is an indication of increases in luxury spending, in general.

38 Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

39 Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

40 Data are in inflation-adjusted (2015) dollars.

41 These figures are in inflation-adjusted dollars (2015) and derives from data in Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

42 This is according to historical data provided in Giving USA, compared with projected increases in the GDP and total giving in The Philanthropy Outlook. Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

43 Data for years prior to 2016 come from Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

44 Drew Lindsay, Peter Olsen-Phillips, and Eden Stiffman, “Fidelity Overtakes United Way as New Charity Champion,” The Chronicle of Philanthropy, Oct. 27, 2016, link

45 Giving USA 2016: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2015, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

46 Drew Lindsay, Joshua Hatch, and Brian O’Leary, “A New Way to Give: Inside the Donor-Advised Fund Explosion,” The Chronicle of Philanthropy, Oct. 27, 2016, link

47 “Donor-Advised Fund Q&A,” DAF Direct, Retrieved Nov. 10, 2016, link; “DAF Advantages and Limitations,” National Philanthropic Trust, Retrieved Nov. 10, 2016, link; NPT Donor-Advised Funds: FAQ, National Philanthropic Trust, Retrieved Nov. 10, 2016, link; “What is a Donor-Advised Fund?,” Fidelity Charitable, Retrieved Nov. 10, 2016, link

48 Drew Lindsay, Peter Olsen-Phillips, and Eden Stiffman, “Fidelity Overtakes United Way as New Charity Champion,” The Chronicle of Philanthropy, Oct. 27, 2016, link; Drew Lindsay, Joshua Hatch, and Brian O’Leary, “A New Way to Give: Inside the Donor-Advised Fund Explosion,” The Chronicle of Philanthropy, Oct. 27, 2016, link

49 Drew Lindsay, Peter Olsen-Phillips, and Eden Stiffman, “Fidelity Overtakes United Way as New Charity Champion,” The Chronicle of Philanthropy, Oct. 27, 2016, link

50 Ken Nopar, “Donor-Advised Funds Are a Boon to Savvy Charities,” The Chronicle of Philanthropy, Oct. 28, 2014, link, second-to-last paragraph

51 Krista Endsley, “What Drives Donor Loyalty? Findings from the Latest Donor Research,” Association of Fundraising Professionals [blog], June 11, 2016, link

52 Sean Norris, “80 Nonprofit Trends for 2016,” Nonprofit Pro, Feb. 9, 2016, link

53 Ray Gary, “Crossing the Chasm: Nonprofit Fundraising Strategies and Systems Are All Wrong for This New World,” Nonprofit Hub, Retrieved Nov. 10, 2016, link; Sean Norris, “80 Nonprofit Trends for 2016,” Nonprofit Pro, Feb. 9, 2016, link

54 Sean Norris, “80 Nonprofit Trends for 2016,” Nonprofit Pro, Feb. 9, 2016, link, ¶ 7

55 Aaron Smith, “U.S. Smartphone Use in 2015,” Pew Research Center, April 1, 2015, link; “Internet Use Over Time,” Pew Research Center, retrieved Nov. 10, 2016, link

56 Ray Gary, “Crossing the Chasm: Nonprofit Fundraising Strategies and Systems Are All Wrong for This New World,” Nonprofit Hub, Retrieved Nov. 10, 2016, link

57 Ray Gary, “The Rise of the Connected Donor: Why Digital Matters More Than Ever,” Top Nonprofits, Oct.13, 2016, link

58 “Dunham+Company Study: Explosive Growth in Donations Via Mobile Devices,” Dunham+Company, March 23, 2016, link

59 Ray Gary, “5 Things Nonprofits Need to Do to Move the Needle and Thrive,” Philanthropy Journal News, Sep. 26, 2016, link

60 Giving USA 2014, Giving USA 2015, and Giving USA 2016, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, link

61 2015 Blackbaud Charitable Giving Report, Blackbaud, 2015, link. Data excludes grants.

62 Donald Drake, “Crowdfunding Grows Up: 4 Trends That Will Shape and Shake 2015,” The Huffington Post, Jan. 8, 2015, link; “Crowdfunding Industry Statistics, 2015, 2016,” Crowd Expert, Retrieved Nov. 10, 2016, link

63 Aaron Smith, “4. Collaborative: Crowdfunding Platforms,” Pew Research Center, May 19, 2016, link

64 “The Non-Profit Guide to Successful Crowdfunding,” Ernest Barbaric, Retrieved Nov. 10, 2016, link

65 Joe Garecht, “How to Use Crowd-Funding Sites to Raise Money for Your Non-Profit,” The Fundraising Authority, Retrieved Nov. 10, 2016, link; “Crowdfunding for Nonprofits,” National Council of Nonprofits, Retrieved Nov. 10, 2016, link

66 Ray Gary, “5 Things Nonprofits Need to Do to Move the Needle and Thrive,” Philanthropy Journal News, Sep. 26, 2016, link

67 Derrick Feldmann, Inspiring the Next Generation: The 2014 Millennial Impact Report, Achieve, 2014, link; The 2013 Millennial Impact Report, Achieve, 2013, link; Millennial Running Study, Achieve, 2016, link; The 2006 Cone Millennial Cause Study, Cone Inc., 2006, link

68 Sean Norris, “80 Nonprofit Trends for 2016,” Nonprofit Pro, Feb. 9, 2016, link

69 Sean Norris, “80 Nonprofit Trends for 2016,” Nonprofit Pro, Feb. 9, 2016, link, (Pfeifer, Dale Nirvani); The 2013 Millennial Impact Report, Achieve, 2013, link

70 “OECD Sees Resurgent US Growth Boosting Global Economy,” Reuters, Nov. 28, 2016, link

71 These figures are projections created for the purposes of The Philanthropy Outlook and are higher than the IMF projections. Other forecasts report similar trends: link

72 “OECD Sees Resurgent US Growth Boosting Global Economy,” Reuters, Nov. 28, 2016, link

73 Shocks can develop as a result of global or regional conflict, inflation, economic downturns, or political upheaval.

74 “Press Release,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Dec. 16, 2015, link

75 Patrick Gillespie, “Finally, Fed Raises Rates for the First Time in 2016,” CNN Money, Dec. 15, 2016, link

76 Patrick Gillespie, “Finally, Fed Raises Rates for the First Time in 2016,” CNN Money, Dec. 15, 2016, link

77 “Fed Raises Rates,” Reuters, December 14, 2016, link, ¶ 1

78 Lydia O’Neal, “Oil Prices 2016: OPEC Members Shooting for up to $60 Per Barrel, Iran Minister Says,” International Business Times, Nov. 21, 2016, link

79 Tyler Yell, “Crude Oil Price Forecast: Crude Bounces on Hope OPEC Salvages Deal,” Nasdaq, Nov. 15, 2016, link

80 “Oil Price Surges to Highest Level in a Year,” The Week, Dec. 2, 2016, link

81 Timothy Puko, “Reasons Why Oil Prices Could Fall Further,” The Wall Street Journal [blog], Nov. 16, 2016, link

82 “World Bank Ups Its 2017 Oil Price Forecast to $55,” Nasdaq, Oct. 25, 2016, link; “Economic Forecasting Survey: Oil Prices,” The Wall Street Journal, Retrieved Nov. 2016, link

83 “Civilian Unemployment Rate,” FRED, Economic Research, Dec. 2, 2016, link

84 “Economic Forecasting Survey: Unemployment,” The Wall Street Journal, Retrieved Nov. 2016, link

85 “Economic Forecasting Survey: CPI,” The Wall Street Journal, Retrieved Nov. 2016, link

86 Timothy Sandoval, “Nonprofits See Unprecedented Support Following Trump’s Win,” The Chronicle of Philanthropy, Nov. 15, 2016, link

87 Timothy Sandoval, “Nonprofits See Unprecedented Support Following Trump’s Win,” The Chronicle of Philanthropy, Nov. 15, 2016, link, ¶ 3

88 “OECD Sees Resurgent US Growth Boosting Global Economy,” Reuters, Nov. 28, 2016, link

89 Data for consumer sentiment come from the Consumer Sentiment Index, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), link

90 Data for corporate saving come from Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, link; Data for corporate profits come from Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, link

91 In The Philanthropy Outlook 2016, the predicted growth rate for employment in 2015 was 1.1%, while the preliminary actual growth rate was 2.1%. Final 2015 values were not yet available at the time this report was released.

92 In The Philanthropy Outlook 2016, the predicted growth rate for GDP in 2015 was 2.7%, while the preliminary actual growth rate was 2.6%. Final 2015 values were not yet available at the time this report was released.

93 The actual value of household and nonprofit net worth was not yet available for 2016 at the time this report was released.

94 Data for the interest rates of governmental securities come from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), link

95 In The Philanthropy Outlook 2016, the predicted growth rate for personal income in 2015 was 2.9%, while the preliminary actual growth rate was 3.9%. Final 2015 values were not yet available at the time this report was released.

96 This variable was not used comprehensively in prior Outlooks; therefore, cannot yet be tested for accuracy.

97 This variable was not used in prior Outlooks; therefore, cannot yet be tested for accuracy. The exceptions to stable personal consumption expenditure indicators are: K-12 education services, community school services, clothing, and foreign travel.

98 This variable was not used comprehensively in prior Outlooks; therefore, cannot yet be tested for accuracy.

99 In The Philanthropy Outlook 2016, the model predicted a 2015 growth rate for the S&P 500 of 6.3% while the realized value was -2.1%. This difference is well within expected variance. Final 2016 values were not yet available at the time this report was released.

100 Note that the predictions for 2016 economic data were made prior to the 2016 calendar year closing. Because the growth rates noted are predictions, these figures will vary from those publicly available at the time of release of this report.

101 Only the percentage changes for projected giving in 2017 and 2018 are reported in The Philanthropy Outlook 2017 & 2018.

102 The Root Mean-Squared Error (RMSE) is a standard measure of forecast quality with lower values of the RMSE indicating greater predictive ability. See the Technical Appendix.

103 Only the percentage changes for projected giving in 2017 and 2018 are reported in The Philanthropy Outlook 2017 & 2018.

104 Also referred to as the “explanatory variables.”

105 “What is Disposable Income?,” Investopedia, Retrieved Dec. 4, 2016, link, ¶ 1

106 “Chapter 5: Personal Consumption Expenditures,” Bureau of Economic Analysis, Retrieved Dec. 4, 2016, link, ¶ 1

107 “A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States,” Bureau of Economic Analysis, Retrieved Dec. 4, 2016, link