According to the baseline projection alone, total giving would have increased in 2018 and 2019. The exceptional circumstances created by tax policy changes have complicated this picture. Click here for a more detailed analysis.
Specific factors that will significantly and positively influence total giving in 2018 and 2019 include:
- Close-to-average to above-average growth in the S&P 500 in preceding and projected years,
- Close-to-average to above-average growth in
personal income, and
- Close-to-average to average growth in preceding year’s GDP.
Year-over-year growth in the current year’s S&P 500 influences individual/household giving for the subsequent year, especially giving by those with median and higher levels of income. In general, average growth in personal income for all types of households will positively impact total giving for 2018 and 2019. In fact, growth in personal income will have the largest influence on total giving for these years.
Other factors that will positively influence total giving in 2018 and 2019 include an increase in the preceding year’s consumption and an increase in the projected year’s GDP.