Citations

  1. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, H.R. 115 Congress, congress.gov
  2. The rate of change for the year 2018 is relative to the year 2017. The rate of change for the year 2019 is relative to the year 2018.
  3. “Tax Policy and Charitable Giving Results,” researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and commissioned by Independent Sector, May 2017, scholarworks.iupui.edu
  4. An exception occurred between 1982 and 1986, when the charitable deduction became an above-the-line deduction and was available to all taxpayers.
  5. Giving USA 2017: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2016, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, givingusa.org
  6. Suzanne Garment and Leslie Lenkowsky, “Why Philanthropies Needn’t Fear Tax Reform,” The Wall Street Journal, November 20, 2017, wsj.com
  7. “Tax Policy and Charitable Giving Results,” researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and commissioned by Independent Sector, May 2017, scholarworks.iupui.edu
  8. “Tax Policy and Charitable Giving Results,” researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and commissioned by Independent Sector, May 2017, scholarworks.iupui.edu
  9. Joseph Rosenberg and Philip Stallworth, “The House Tax Bill is Not Very Charitable to Nonprofits,” Tax Policy Center, November 15, 2017, taxpolicycenter.org
  10. “Council on Foundations Statement on Passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,” Council on Foundations, December 20, 2017, cof.org
  11. Suzanne Garment and Leslie Lenkowsky, “Nonprofits Have It Wrong About the Tax Law—and Why Their Lobbying Failed,” The Chronicle of Philanthropy, January 5, 2018, philanthropy.com
  12. Kathryn Vasel, “Making sense of the new cap on state tax deductions,” CNN Money, December 20, 2017, money.cnn.com
  13. Jared Walczak, “The State and Local Tax Deduction: A Primer,” The Tax Foundation, March 15, 2017, taxfoundation.org
  14. Jared Walczak, “The State and Local Tax Deduction: A Primer,” The Tax Foundation, March 15, 2017, taxfoundation.org
  15. Herb Jackson, “High-tax states plot ways to get around new limit on federal tax deductions,” USA Today, January 5, 2018, usatoday.com
  16. “Major Enacted Tax Legislation, 1980–1989,” Tax Policy Center, taxpolicycenter.org
    • Charles T. Clotfelter, “The Impact of Tax Reform on Charitable Giving: A 1989 Perspective,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 3273, 1990, nber.org
    • Christopher M. Duquette, “Is Charitable Giving by Nonitemizers Responsive to Tax Incentives? New Evidence,” National Tax Journal, 1999, 52(2), 195–206
  17. Charles T. Clotfelter, “The Impact of Tax Reform on Charitable Giving: A 1989 Perspective,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 3273, 1990, nber.org
  18. “Tax Policy and Charitable Giving Results,” researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and commissioned by Independent Sector, May 2017, scholarworks.iupui.edu
    • Charles T. Clotfelter, “Charitable Giving Behavior and the Evaluation of Tax Policy” in Federal Tax Policy and Charitable Giving, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1985
    • “The 2014 U.S. Trust Study of High Net Worth Philanthropy,” U.S. Trust and the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, 2014, newsroom.bankofamerica.com
    • René Bekkers and Pamela Wiepking. “A Literature Review of Empirical Studies of Philanthropy: Eight Mechanisms that Drive Charitable Giving.” Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 2010, 40(5), 924–973
    • Lise Vesterlund, “Why do people give?” in The Nonprofit Sector: A Research Handbook, Edition 2, eds. Walter W. Powell and Richard Steinberg, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2006, 168–190
    • René Bekkers and Pamela Wiepking. “A Literature Review of Empirical Studies of Philanthropy: Eight Mechanisms that Drive Charitable Giving.” Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 2010
    • Charles T. Clotfelter, “Charitable Giving Behavior and the Evaluation of Tax Policy” in Federal Tax Policy and Charitable Giving, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1985
  19. Charles T. Clotfelter, “The Impact of Tax Reform on Charitable Giving: A 1989 Perspective,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 3273, 1990, nber.org
  20. Ashlea Ebeling, “Why 2017 Is the Year to Give to Charity (If You Want a Tax Break),” Forbes, December 12, 2017, forbes.com
  21. Charles T. Clotfelter, “The Impact of Tax Reform on Charitable Giving: A 1989 Perspective,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 3273, 1990, nber.org
    • James Andreoni, “Philanthropy,” in Handbook of the Economics of Giving, Altruism and Reciprocity, Volume 2, eds. Serge-Christophe Kolm and Jean Mercier Ythier, Amsterdam: North-Holland, 2006
    • Jon Bakija and Bradley Heim, “How Does Charitable Giving Respond to Incentives and Income? New Estimates from Panel Data,” National Tax Journal, 2011, 64(2), 615–650
    • Nicholas J. Duquette, “Do Tax Incentives Affect Charitable Contributions? Evidence from Public Charities’ Reported Revenues,” Journal of Public Economics, 2016, 137, 51–69
  22. Joel Slemrod, “High-Income Families and the Tax Changes of the 1980s: The Anatomy of Behavioral Response,” in Empirical Foundations of Household Taxation, eds. Martin Feldstein and James Poterba. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1996
  23. Carolyn Mollen, “Consider Tax Policy in Year-End Appeals,” Independent Sector, December 20, 2017, independentsector.org
  24. Douglas Belkin and Shayndi Rice, “Charities See Surge of Giving Ahead of Change in Tax Law; Some organizations fear expansion of standard deduction could lead to drop in donations,” The Wall Street Journal, December 30, 2017, wsj.com
  25. Timothy Sandoval, “As Tax Changes Loom, Charities Encourage Donors to Give Now,” The Chronicle of Philanthropy, December 8, 2017, philanthropy.com
  26. Mary Beth Franklin, “Interest in donor-advised funds surges in response to tax changes,” InvestmentNews, December 20, 2017, investmentnews.com
  27. Andy Rosen and Jonathan Saltzman, “Facing uncertainty, charities use new tax law to push for donations,” The Boston Globe, December 28, 2017, bostonglobe.com
  28. Carrns, Ann, “How to Write Off Donations Under the New Tax Plan: Consider Bunching,” The New York Times, December 20, 2017, nytimes.com
  29. David Joulfaian, “Estate Taxes and Charitable Bequests by the Wealthy,” National Tax Journal, 2000, 53, 743–763, nber.org
  30. David Joulfaian, “What Do We Know About the Behavioral Effects of the Estate Tax?” Boston College Law Review, 2016, 57(3), lawdigitalcommons.bc.edu
  31. Gerald Auten and David Joulfaian, “Charitable Contributions and Intergenerational Transfers,” Journal of Public Economics, 1996, 59(1), 55–68
  32. Patrick Rooney, “Why Nonprofits Should Weigh In on Proposals to Repeal Estate Tax,” Nonprofit Quarterly, October 23, 2017, nonprofitquarterly.org
  33. Daniel Berger, “The Unintended Consequences of Killing the Estate Tax,” Tax Policy Center, October 9, 2017, taxpolicycenter.org
    • Jon M. Baua and William Gale, “Effects of Estate Tax Reform on Charitable Giving,” Tax Policy Center, 2003, ww.taxpolicycenter.org
    • Robert McClelland, “Charitable Bequests and the Repeal of the Estate Tax,” Congressional Budget Office, cbo.gov
  34. David Joulfaian, Estate Taxes and Charitable Bequests by the Wealthy, 53 National Tax Journal, 0200
  35. Giving USA 2017: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2016, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, givingusa.org
  36. Patrick Rooney, “The pall that the tax law is casting over charities,” The Conversation, December 23, 2017, theconversation.com
  37. Suzanne Garment and Leslie Lenkowsky, “Nonprofits Have It Wrong About the Tax Law—and Why Their Lobbying Failed,” The Chronicle of Philanthropy, January 5, 2018, philanthropy.com
  38. “Boeing CEO Mulienburg Applauds Tax Law, Announces $300 Million in Employee-Related and Charitable Investments to Spur Innovation and Growth,” PR Newswire, December 20, 2017, prnewswire.com
  39. Mark Calvey, “Companies cite tax overhaul in plans to boost wages, pay bonuses, The Business Journals, December 21, 2017, bizjournals.com
  40. “New Survey Finds While Holiday Payouts Are Up 66 Percent, Holiday Bonuses Are Becoming More Scarce in 2017,” Accounting Principles, October 25, 2017, accountingprincipals.com
  41. “Summary and Analysis of the Final Tax Reform Legislation,” Council on Foundations, January 2, 2018, cof.org
  42. “Summary and Analysis of the Final Tax Reform Legislation,” Council on Foundations, January 2, 2018, cof.org
    • Suzanne Garment and Leslie Lenkowsky, “Nonprofits Have It Wrong About the Tax Law—and Why Their Lobbying Failed,” The Chronicle of Philanthropy, January 5, 2018, philanthropy.com
    • David McKay Wilson, “Tax reform could hurt charitable giving with few itemizing deductions,” The Journal News, January 4, 2018, lohud.com
  43. “Smart Funding in Tough Times: Philanthropic Funding in an Economic Downturn,” Institute for Philanthropy for Credit Suisse, 2013, credit-suisse.com
  44. David Wessel, “What to expect from the U.S. economy in 2018,” Brookings Institution, December 26, 2017, brookings.edu
  45. Jim Glassman, “3 Impacts of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,” J.P.Morgan, January 3, 2018, commercial.jpmorganchase.com
  46. Jim Glassman, “3 Impacts of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,” J.P.Morgan , January 3, 2018, commercial.jpmorganchase.com
  47. David Wessel “What to expect from the U.S. economy in 2018,” Brookings Institution, December 26, 2017, brookings.edu
  48. Heather Long, “How an unequal tax cut grew more unequal,” The Washington Post, December 2, 2017, washingtonpost.com
  49. Heather Long, “How an unequal tax cut grew more unequal,” The Washington Post, December 2, 2017, washingtonpost.com
  50. Paul Krugman, “Trickle Down? Not Now, and Not for a While at Best,” The New York Times, December 24, 2017, nytimes.com
  51. Ben Casselman and Jeffery C. Mays, “Last-Minute Rush to Pre-Pay Taxes Gives Way to Confusion and Anger,” The New York Times, December 28, 2017, nytimes.com
  52. Bernie Becker, “Confusion and chaos ahead as new tax rules take immediate effect,” Politico, December 20, 2017, politico.com
  53. Ben Casselman and Jeffery C. Mays, “Last-Minute Rush to Pre-Pay Taxes Gives Way to Confusion and Anger,” The New York Times, December 28, 2017, nytimes.com
  54. Herb Jackson, “High-tax states plot ways to get around new limit on federal tax deductions,” USA Today, January 5, 2018, usatoday.com
  55. The relationship between nonprofit net worth and total giving likely reflects a symbiotic relationship between the health of nonprofits that receive personal contributions and overall giving levels. It could also be that nonprofits with growing assets are more likely to employ sophisticated fundraising programs that positively impact giving by individuals and households.
    • John J. Havens, Mary A. O’Herlihy, and Paul G. Schervish, “Charitable Giving: How Much, by Whom, to What, and How?” in The Nonprofit Sector: A Research Handbook, Edition 2, eds. Walter W. Powell and Richard Steinberg, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2006, 542–567
    • Pamela Wiepking and René Bekkers, “Who Gives? A Literature Review of Predictors of Charitable Giving, Part Two,” Voluntary Sector Review, 2012, 3(2), 217–245
    • Russell N. James and Deanna L. Sharpe, “The Nature and Causes of the U-Shaped Charitable Giving Profile,” Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 2007, 36(2), 218–238
  56. Growth in charitable giving is often driven by prior-year growth of specific economic variables. For foundation giving, this is true for GDP, the S&P 500, consumer sentiment, and net worth of households and nonprofits.
  57. This is one hypothesis. Foundations will adopt various strategies given various funding priorities.
  58. Growth in charitable giving is often driven by prior-year growth of specific economic variables. For estate giving, this is true for individual/household net worth.
  59. Growth in charitable giving is often driven by prior-year growth of specific economic variables. For corporate giving, this is true for consumer sentiment.
  60. Note that these generalizations are based on national-level data and are not necessarily indicative of a single corporation’s philanthropy program or strategy.
  61. Other factors that will affect education giving, both positively and negatively, include growth in the following: personal giving and consumer expenditures on nonprofit services, education in the preceding year, recreation services in the preceding year, health in the preceding year, and community school services in the preceding year.
  62. The projected increases in giving to education in 2018 and 2019 will hold unless substantially large gifts were made in 2017 or will be made in 2018 but not in subsequent years. Information about large gifts comes from Giving USA 2017: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2016, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, February 15, 2018, givingusa.org
  63. Giving USA 2017: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2016, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, February 15, 2018, givingusa.org
  64. René Bekkers and Pamela Wiepking, “A Literature Review of Empirical Studies of Philanthropy: Eight Mechanisms That Drive Charitable Giving,” Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 2010, nvs.sagepub.com
  65. “Colleges and Universities Raise $41 Billion in 2016,” Council for Aid to Education, 2017, www.cae.org; Sarah Reckhow and Jeffrey W. Snyder, “The Expanding Role of Philanthropy in Education Politics,” Educational Researcher, 2014, doi.org
  66. Other factors that will affect health giving, both positively and negatively, include growth in the following: total giving and consumer expenditures on clothing, nonprofit sales, pharmaceuticals, education services in the preceding year, and foreign travel in the preceding year.
    • Ann Foster, “Consumer Expenditures Vary by Age,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2015, bls.gov
    • Ann Foster, “A Closer Look at Spending Patterns of Older Americans,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2016, bls.gov
  67. This percentage reflects only those households that have that expense. Mark Lino, “Expenditures on Children by Families,” U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2013, cnpp.usda.gov
  68. Consumer expenditures on foreign travel is an indication of increases in luxury spending, in general.
  69. Giving USA 2017: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2016, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, February 15, 2018, givingusa.org
  70. Sarah Brown, Mark N. Harris, and Karl Taylor, “Modelling charitable donations to an unexpected natural disaster: Evidence from the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics,” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2012, sciencedirect.com
  71. Kimberley A.Scharf, Sarah Smith, and Mark Wilhelm, “Lift and Shift: The Effect of Fundraising Interventions in Charity Space and Time,” CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6694, 2017, ssrn.com
  72. Pierre-Guillaume Méon and Philip Verwimp, “Pro-social behavior after a disaster: parochial or universal? Evidence from a natural experiment in Belgium,” CEB Working Paper No. 16/054, 2016, dipot.ulb.ac.be
  73. Phil Brown and Po Yin Wong, “Types of News Coverage and Donations to Disaster Relief: Evidence from the 2008 Cyclone in Myanmar,”, 2009, ssrn.com
  74. Data for consumer sentiment come from the Consumer Sentiment Index, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), research.stlouisfed.org
    • Data for corporate saving come from Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, bea.gov
    • Data for corporate profits come from Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, bea.gov
  75. Although not included in the final model for the Philanthropy Outlook 2017 & 2018, the predicted growth rate for employment in 2016 was 2.1%, while the preliminary actual growth rate was 1.7%. Preliminary 2017 values were not yet available at the time this report was released.
  76. In The Philanthropy Outlook 2017 & 2018, the predicted growth rate for GDP in 2016 was 3.6%, while the preliminary actual growth rate was 1.5%. Preliminary 2017 values were not yet available at the time this report was released.
  77. The actual value of household and nonprofit net worth was not yet available for 2017.
  78. Data for the interest rates of governmental securities come from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), research.stlouisfed.org
  79. In the Philanthropy Outlook 2017 & 2018, the predicted growth rate for personal consumption in 2016 was 3.7%, while the preliminary actual growth rate was 2.7%. Preliminary 2017 values were not available at the time this report was released.
  80. In The Philanthropy Outlook 2017 & 2018, the predicted growth rate for personal income in 2016 was 3.8%, while the preliminary actual growth rate was 1.2%. Preliminary 2017 values were not yet available at the time this report was released.
  81. In The Philanthropy Outlook 2017 & 2018, the model predicted a 2016 growth rate for the S&P 500 of 4.0%, while the realized value was 7.8%. This difference is well within the expected variance.
  82. “The Fundraising Effectiveness Project,” Association of Fundraising Professionals, 2017, afpfep.org
    • “2016 Cone Communications Employee Engagement Study,” Cone Communications, 2016, conecomm.com
    • “The 50 Best Workplaces for Giving Back,” Fortune, February 9, 2017, fortune.com
  83. “2016 Cone Communications Employee Engagement Study,” Cone Communications, 2016, conecomm.com
  84. “Snapshot 2017: What U.S. Employees Think About Workplace Giving, Volunteering, and CSR,” America’s Charities, 2017, charities.org
  85. “Impact investing Trends: Evidence of a Growing Industry,” Global Impact Investing Network, 2016, thegiin.org
  86. David Callahan, “Philanthropy Forecast: Trends and Issues to Watch,” Inside Philanthropy, January 18, 2017, insidephilanthropy.com
    • What You Need to Know about Impact Investing, Global Impact Investing Network, thegiin.org
    • “A Short Guide to Impact Investing,” The Case Foundation, 2015, casefoundation.org
  87. Sandra L. Colby and Jennifer M. Mortman, “Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060,”, 2015, census.gov
  88. “Diversity In Giving: The Changing Landscape of American Philanthropy,” Blackbaud, 2015, institute.blackbaud.com
  89. Megan O’Neil and Eden Stiffman, “Going It Alone,” Chronicle of Philanthropy, September 6, 2017, philanthropy.com
  90. 2017 Nonprofit Talent Management Priorities, Nonprofit HR, 2017, nonprofithr.com
  91. “State of the Work: Stories from the Movement to Advance Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion,” D5 Coalition, 2015, d5coalition.org
  92. Only the percentage changes for projected giving in 2018 and 2019 are reported in The Philanthropy Outlook 2018 & 2019.
  93. RMSE is a standard measure of forecast quality, with lower values of the RMSE indicating greater predictive ability. See the Guide to the Philanthropy Outlook Model at www.PhilanthropyOutlook.com for the formula.
  94. Only the percentage changes for projected giving in 2018 and 2019 are reported in The Philanthropy Outlook 2018 & 2019.
  95. Also referred to as the “explanatory variables.”
  96. “Chapter 5: Personal Consumption Expenditures,” Bureau of Economic Analysis, bea.gov