References

  1. H.R. 1, now Public Law No: 115-97
  2. Thomas Heath, “All three market indexes finished 2018 in the red,” The Washington Post, December 31, 2018, washingtonpost.com
  3. The rate of change for the year 2019 is relative to the year 2018. The rate of change for the year 2020 is relative to the year 2019.
  4. Comparison data are drawn from Giving USA 2018: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2017, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, givingusa.org. The figures are all in inflation-adjusted dollars. The 10-year, 25-year, and 40-year averages are shown in Table 1 of this report.
  5. Tax Policy and Charitable Giving Results, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and commissioned by Independent Sector, May 2017, scholarworks.iupui.edu
  6. Peter Wells, “Fed upgrades economic forecasts, sees lower unemployment rate,” Financial Times, June 13, 2018, ft.com
  7. Liz Moyer, “Fed keeps its long-run forecast for economic growth unchanged at 1.8%,” CNBC, September 26, 2018, cnbc.com
  8. William G. Gale, Hilary Gelfond, Aaron Krupkin, Mark J. Mazur and Eric Toder, Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: A Preliminary Analysis, Tax Policy Center, June 13, 2018, taxpolicycenter.org
  9. Heather Long, “The U.S. is on track for the longest expansion ever, but it’s coming at a cost,” The Washington Post, April 18, 2018, washingtonpost.com
  10. Yen Nee Lee, “IMF cuts its global growth forecasts, citing trade tensions between the US and its trading partners,” CNBC, October 8, 2018, cnbc.com
  11. Martin Crutsinger, “Business economists worry about possible recession in 2020,” Associated Press, June 4, 2018, apnews.com
  12. Jeff Kearns, “Two-Thirds of U.S. Business Economists See Recession by End-2020,” Bloomberg, October 1, 2018, bloomberg.com
  13. Aimee Picchi, “Nasdaq enters ‘bear’ market, as stocks cap worst week in years,” CBS News, December 21, 2018, cbsnews.com
  14. Paul Davidson, “The economy is humming. So why do experts foresee a recession in 2020?” USA Today, June 11, 2018, usatoday.com
  15. Christy Rakoczy Bieber, “Will state SALT cap workarounds help you reduce more of your state and local taxes?” Credit Karma, December 4, 2018, creditkarma.com
  16. Christy Rakoczy Bieber, “Will state SALT cap workarounds help you reduce more of your state and local taxes?” Credit Karma, December 4, 2018, creditkarma.com
  17. Patrick Rooney, "Why Nonprofits Should Weigh In on Proposals to Repeal Estate Tax," Nonprofit Quarterly, October 23, 2017, nonprofitquarterly.org
  18. David Joulfaian, "What Do We Know About the Behavioral Effects of the Estate Tax?" Boston College Law Review, 2016, 57(3), lawdigitalcommons.bc.edu
  19. Patrick Rooney, “The pall that the tax law is casting over charities,” The Conversation, December 3, 2017, theconversation.com
  20. Suzanne Garment and Leslie Lenkowsky, "Nonprofits Have It Wrong About the Tax Law—and Why Their Lobbying Failed,” The Chronicle of Philanthropy, January 5, 2018, philanthropy.com
  21. Alex Daniels, “Companies Say Tax Cut Will Boost Their Giving, but Some Experts Are Skeptical,” The Chronicle of Philanthropy, May 9, 2018, philanthropy.com
  22. Howard Gleckman, “21 Million Taxpayers Will Stop Taking the Charitable Deduction Under the TCJA,” Tax Policy Center, January 8, 2018, taxpolicycenter.org
  23. Howard Gleckman, “21 Million Taxpayers Will Stop Taking the Charitable Deduction Under the TCJA,” Tax Policy Center, January 8, 2018, January 8, 2018, taxpolicycenter.org
  24. Alex Brill and Derrick Choe, Charitable Giving and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, American Enterprise Institute, June 2018, aei.org
  25. Alex Brill and Derrick Choe, Charitable Giving and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, American Enterprise Institute, June 2018, aei.org
  26. John Ricco, “TCJA Project to Lower 2018 Charitable Giving by $22 Billion,” Penn Wharton Budget Model, July 20, 2018, budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
  27. Historical averages reported in The Philanthropy Outlook are in comparison to a national charitable dataset going back to 1975, as published by Giving USA 2018: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2017, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, givingusa.org. The figures are all in inflation-adjusted dollars (2017). Prior-year projections are not included in this report.
  28. Data for years prior to 2018 come from Giving USA 2018: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2017, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, givingusa.org
  29. Data for years prior to 2018 come from Giving USA 2018: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2017, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, givingusa.org
  30. Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2018 come from Giving USA 2018: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2017, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, givingusa.org
  31. Data for non-itemized giving come from the Philanthropy Panel Study, the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, philanthropy.iupui.edu, and Giving USA 2018: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2017, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, givingusa.org
    • John J. Havens, Mary A. O’Herlihy, and Paul G. Schervish, “Charitable Giving: How Much, by Whom, to What, and How?” in The Nonprofit Sector: A Research Handbook, Edition 2, eds. Walter W. Powell and Richard Steinberg, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2006, 542–567
    • Russell N. James and Deanna L. Sharpe, “The Nature and Causes of the U-Shaped Charitable Giving Profile,” Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 2007, 36(2), 218–238
    • Pamela Wiepking and René Bekkers, “Who Gives? A Literature Review of Predictors of Charitable Giving, Part Two,” Voluntary Sector Review, 2012, 3(2), 217–245
    • The Philanthropy Panel Study, Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, 2010, 2012, philanthropy.iupui.edu
  32. Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2018 come from Giving USA 2018: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2017, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, givingusa.org
  33. Growth in charitable giving is often driven by prior-year growth in specific economic variables. For foundation giving, this is true for GDP, the S&P 500, consumer sentiment, and household and nonprofit net worth.
  34. This is one hypothesis. Foundations will adopt various strategies given funding priorities.
  35. Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2018 come from Giving USA 2018: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2017, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, givingusa.org
  36. Growth in charitable giving is often driven by prior-year growth in specific economic variables. For estate giving, this is true for household and nonprofit net worth.
  37. Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2018 come from Giving USA 2018: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2017, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, givingusa.org
  38. Growth in charitable giving is often driven by prior-year growth in specific economic variables. For corporate giving, this is true for consumer sentiment.
  39. Note that these generalizations are based on national-level data and are not necessarily indicative of a single corporation’s philanthropy program or strategy.
  40. Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2018 come from Giving USA 2018: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2017, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, givingusa.org
  41. Other factors that will affect education giving, both positively and negatively, include the difference in the personal savings rate, growth in the number of itemizers, growth in individual/household giving, and growth in consumer expenditures on recreation in the preceding years.
  42. Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2018 come from Giving USA 2018: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2017, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, givingusa.org
  43. Other factors that will affect health giving, both positively and negatively, include growth in total giving and growth in consumer expenditures on clothing.
  44. Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2018 come from Giving USA 2018: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2017, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, givingusa.org
  45. Other factors that will affect public-society benefit giving, both positively and negatively, include above-average growth in the S&P 500 in the preceding years, the difference in the personal savings rate in the preceding years, growth in personal savings in the preceding years, growth in consumer expenditures on foreign travel in the preceding years, growth in consumer expenditures on pharmaceuticals in the preceding years, and growth in consumer expenditures on recreation in the preceding years.
    • Overview of Overall Giving, Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, 2017, generosityforlife.org. The report is based on the Philanthropy Panel Study (PPS), a module of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), which surveys more than 9,000 households biennially. Questions were asked in 2015 about charitable giving that took place in 2014
    • Vital Signs: Monitoring Patterns in the Donor Marketplace, Blackbaud Institute, 2017, institute.blackbaud.com. The study draws on a sample of 1,042 nonprofits comprising $16.4 billion in charitable gifts in 2015
    • Drew Lindsay, “How America Gives Special Report: Breaking the Charity Habit,” The Chronicle of Philanthropy, October 3, 2017, philanthropy.com. The report analyzes giving by itemizing taxpayers with an annual adjusted gross income of $50,000 or more.
  46. Where Are America’s Volunteers? A Look at America’s Widespread Decline in Volunteering in Cities and States, Do Good Institute at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy, 2018, publicpolicy.umd.edu
  47. Quarterly Fundraising Report: Year-to-Date Nonprofit Sector Trends 01/01/2018 to 09/30/2018, Fundraising Effectiveness Project, 2018, afpfep.org
    • 2018 U.S. Trust Study of High-Net-Worth Philanthropy, Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and U.S. Trust, 2018, ustrustaem.fs.ml.com
    • The Giving Gap: Donor Awareness and Use of Strategic Giving Methods, Fidelity Charitable, 2016, fidelitycharitable.org
  48. There are different ways of defining “high-net-worth household.” The 2018 U.S. Trust Study of High-Net-Worth Philanthropy defines a high-net-worth household as one that earns more than $200,000 in annual income and/or has net worth of more than $1 million, not including a household’s primary residence. 2018 U.S. Trust Study of High-Net-Worth Philanthropy, Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and U.S. Trust, 2018, ustrustaem.fs.ml.com
  49. Income and Poverty in the United States: 2015, Tables A-2, United States Census Bureau, September 2016, census.gov
  50. Income and Poverty in the United States: 2015, Tables A-2, United States Census Bureau, September 2016, census.gov
  51. Note that nonprofits whose primary activity is to sponsor donor-advised funds (such as Fidelity Charitable) are not included in the ranking. According to the report, only organizations “with a specific social mission” are included. philanthropy.com
  52. 2018 U.S. Trust Study of High-Net-Worth Philanthropy, Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and U.S. Trust, 2018, ustrustaem.fs.ml.com
  53. Kerry A. Dolan and Luisa Kroll, “Forbes 400 2018: A New Number One And A Record-Breaking Year for America’s Richest People,” Forbes, October 3, 2018, forbes.com
  54. “A Commitment to Philanthropy,” The Giving Pledge, retrieved December 2018, givingpledge.org
  55. “History of the Pledge,” The Giving Pledge, retrieved December 2018, givingpledge.org
  56. “A Closer Look,” Glass Pockets, retrieved December 2018, glasspockets.org
    • 2014 U.S. Trust Study of High-Net-Worth Philanthropy, Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and U.S. Trust, 2014, hdl.handle.net
    • John Havens, Mary A. O’Herlihy, and Paul Schervish, “Charitable Giving: How Much, by Whom, to What, and How?” in The Nonprofit Sector: A Research Handbook, ed. Richard Steinberg and Walter W. Powell (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2006), 2000, p. 542-567
    • Francie Ostrower, Why the Wealthy Give: The Culture of Elite Philanthropy, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995
    • Diversity in Giving: The Changing Landscape of American Philanthropy, Blackbaud, 2015, institute.blackbaud.com
    • Urvashi Vaid and Ashindi Maxton, The Apparitional Donor: Understanding and Engaging High Net Worth Donors of Color, The Advancement Project and the Vaid Group, 2017, thevaidgroup.com
  57. Urvashi Vaid and Ashindi Maxton, The Apparitional Donor: Understanding and Engaging High Net Worth Donors of Color, The Advancement Project and the Vaid Group, 2017, thevaidgroup.com
  58. 2018 U.S. Trust Study of High-Net-Worth Philanthropy, Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and U.S. Trust, 2018, ustrustaem.fs.ml.com
  59. 2018 U.S. Trust Study of High-Net-Worth Philanthropy, Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and U.S. Trust, 2018, ustrustaem.fs.ml.com
  60. Women and Giving: The Impact of Generation and Gender on Philanthropy, Fidelity Charitable, 2017, fidelitycharitable.org. The report is based on a 2016 survey of more than 3,200 donors who itemized charitable deductions on their 2015 tax returns.
  61. Kerry A. Dolan and Luisa Kroll, “Forbes 400 2018: A New Number One And A Record-Breaking Year For America’s Richest People,” Forbes, October 3, 2018, forbes.com
  62. Jennifer Wang, “Laurene Powell Jobs And The Other 56 Richest Women In America 2018,” Forbes, October 3, 2018, forbes.com
  63. Only the percentage changes for projected giving in 2019 and 2020 are reported in The Philanthropy Outlook 2019 & 2020
  64. RMSE is a standard measure of forecast quality, with lower values of the RMSE indicating greater predictive ability. See the Guide to the Philanthropy Outlook Model for the formula.
  65. Only the percentage changes for projected giving in 2019 and 2020 are reported in The Philanthropy Outlook 2019 & 2020.
  66. Also referred to as “explanatory variables.”
  67. There are several terms used for the various personal consumer expenditures in The Philanthropy Outlook 2019 & 2020 models. Please refer to Table 1 1b to view these terms.
  68. “Chapter 5: Personal Consumption Expenditures,” Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, November 2017, bea.gov