References

  1. The rate of change for the year 2020 is relative to the year 2019. The rate of change for the year 2021 is relative to the year 2020.

  2. “Error Term,” Investopedia, Retrieved Dec. 3, 2016, www.investopedia.com

    , December 31, 2018, washingtonpost.com
  3. M.P. Clements, P. H. Franses, and N. R. Swanson, “Forecasting Economic and Financial Time-Series with Non-Linear Models,” International Journal of Forecasting, 20(2), 2004, 169-183; R. Fildes and S. Makridakis, “The Impact of Empirical Accuracy Studies on Time Series Analysis and Forecasting,” International Statistical Review/Revue Internationale de Statistique, 63(3), 1995, 289-308.

  4. Comparison data are drawn from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org. The figures are all in inflation-adjusted dollars. The 10-year, 25-year, and 40-year averages are shown in Table 1 of this report.

  5. Justin Pritchard, “Bank Stress Tests,” The Balance, March 4, 2019, https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-a-bank-stress-test-4165161

    , May 2017, scholarworks.iupui.edu
  6. Historical averages reported in The Philanthropy Outlook are in comparison to a national charitable dataset going back to 1975, as published by Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org. The figures are all in inflation-adjusted dollars (2018). Prior-year projections are not included in this report.

    , June 13, 2018, ft.com
  7. Data for years prior to 2019 come from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

    , September 26, 2018, cnbc.com
  8. Data for years prior to 2019 come from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

    , June 13, 2018, taxpolicycenter.org
  9. Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2019 come from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

    , April 18, 2018, washingtonpost.com
  10. Data for non-itemized giving come from the Philanthropy Panel Study, the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, http://www.philanthropy.iupui.edu/research-and-news, and Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

    , October 8, 2018, cnbc.com
  11. John J. Havens, Mary A. O’Herlihy, and Paul G. Schervish, “Charitable Giving: How Much, by Whom, to What, and How?” in The Nonprofit Sector: A Research Handbook, Edition 2, eds. Walter W. Powell and Richard Steinberg, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2006, 542–567; Pamela Wiepking and René Bekkers, “Who Gives? A Literature Review of Predictors of Charitable Giving, Part Two,” Voluntary Sector Review, 2012, 3(2), 217–245; Russell N. James and Deanna L. Sharpe, “The Nature and Causes of the U-Shaped Charitable Giving Profile,” Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 2007, 36(2), 218–238; The Philanthropy Panel Study, Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, 2010, 2012, www.philanthropy.iupui.edu

    , June 4, 2018, apnews.com
  12. “Chapter 5: Personal Consumption Expenditures,” Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, October 2009, https://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipahandbookch5.pdf

    , October 1, 2018, bloomberg.com
  13. Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2019 come from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

    , December 21, 2018, cbsnews.com
  14. Growth in charitable giving is often driven by prior-year growth in specific economic variables, especially for foundation giving.

    , June 11, 2018, usatoday.com
  15. This is one hypothesis. Foundations will adopt various strategies given funding priorities.

    , December 4, 2018, creditkarma.com
  16. Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2019 come from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

    , December 4, 2018, creditkarma.com
  17. Growth in charitable giving is often driven by prior-year growth in specific economic variables. For estate giving, this is true for household and nonprofit net worth.

    , October 23, 2017, nonprofitquarterly.org
  18. Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2019 come from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

    , 2016, 57(3), lawdigitalcommons.bc.edu
  19. Note that these generalizations are based on national-level data and are not necessarily indicative of a single corporation’s philanthropy program or strategy.

    , December 3, 2017, theconversation.com
  20. Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2019 come from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

    , January 5, 2018, philanthropy.com
  21. Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2019 come from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

    , May 9, 2018, philanthropy.com
  22. Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2019 come from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

    , January 8, 2018, taxpolicycenter.org
  23. Justin Pritchard, “Bank Stress Tests,” The Balance, March 4, 2019, https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-a-bank-stress-test-4165161

    , January 8, 2018, taxpolicycenter.org
  24. “S&P 500 Stock Price Index (S&P 500),” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, RED(R) Economic Data, 2018, retrieved April 2019, http://research.stlouisfed.org;  “Gross Domestic Product,” Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, 2018, retrieved April 2019, www.bea.gov

    , June 2018, aei.org
  25. BLS Spotlight on Statistics: The Recession of 2007-2009, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012, https://www.bls.gov/spotlight/2012/recession/pdf/recession_bls_spotlight.pdf

    , June 2018, aei.org
  26. Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

    , July 20, 2018, budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu
  27. We received projections from the Wharton School of Business for multiple variables under a recession similar in scale to the 2007-09 recession. Additional information about the stress test conditions available upon request.

  28. Changes to the Giving Landscape, Indiana Univeristy Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, 2019, https://scholarworks.iupui.edu/bitstream/handle/1805/21217/vanguard-charitable191022.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

    , givingusa.org
  29. Howard J. Wall, “The ‘Man-Cession’ of 2008-2009: It’s Big, but It’s Not Great,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Regional Economist, 2009, 4-9, https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/october-2009/the-mancession-of-20082009-its-big-but-its-not-great

    , givingusa.org
  30. Hillary Hoffower, “The Great Recession created a domino effect of financial struggles for millennials—here are 5 ways it shaped the generation,” Business Insider, August 11, 2019, https://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-great-recession-affected-millennials-2019-8

    , givingusa.org
  31. Chelsea J. Clark, Xiao Han, and Una O. Osili, “Heterogeneity and Giving: Evidence from U.S. Households Before and After the Great Recession of 2008,” SAGE Publishing: American Behavioral Scientist, 2019, 63 (14), 1841-1862, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0002764219850859

    , givingusa.org
  32. Jonathan Meer, David Miller, and Elisa Wulfsberg, “The Great Recession and Charitable Giving,” Applied Economic Letters, 2017, 24 (21), 1542-1549, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13504851.2017.1319556

    , January 10, 2019
  33. Drew Lindsay, “How America Gives Special Report: Breaking the Charity Habit,” The Chronicle of Philanthropy, October 3, 2017, https://www.philanthropy.com/article/How-America-Gives-Special/241344

    , givingusa.org
  34. Una Osili, Jacqueline Ackerman, and Yannan Li, “Economic Effects on Million Dollar Giving,” Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, Volume 48, Issue 2, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0899764018800791

  35. H. Daniel Heist and Danielle Vance-McMullen, “Understanding Donor-Advised Funds: How Grants Flow During Recessions,” University of Pennsylvania, 2019, https://www.sp2.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Heist-Vance-McMullen_Understanding-Donor-Advised-Funds_working-paper-002.pdf

  36. Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org; Rob Reich and Christopher Wimer, “Charitable Giving and the Great Recession,” The Russell Sage Foundation and The Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality, 2012, https://inequality.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/CharitableGiving_fact_sheet.pdf

    , givingusa.org
  37. Drew Desilver, “The many ways to measure economic inequality,” Pew Research Center, September 22, 2015, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/09/22/the-many-ways-to-measure-economic-inequality/

  38. Bill Chappell, “U.S. Income Inequality Worsens, Widening To A New Gap,” NPR, September 26, 2019, https://www.npr.org/2019/09/26/764654623/u-s-income-inequality-worsens-widening-to-a-new-gap

    , givingusa.org
  39. The study defines “high income” as households in the top 0.1% of the income distribution in the United States from 1917 to 2012. Nicolas J. Duquette, “Inequality and Philanthropy: High-Income Giving in the United States 1917-2012,” Explorations in Economic History, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3042802

  40. Rob Reich, Just Giving: Why Philanthropy Is Failing Democracy and How It Can Do Better, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2018.

  41. Rob Reich, Just Giving: Why Philanthropy Is Failing Democracy and How It Can Do Better, Princeton University Press, 2018; Anand Giridharadas, Winners Take All: The Elite Charade of Changing the World, Alfred A. Knopf, 2018; Edgar Villanueva, Decolonizing Wealth: Indigenous widsom to heal divides and restore balance, Berrett-Koehler Publishers, 2018.

    , givingusa.org
  42. Giving In An Election Year: How Political Giving Impacts Nonprofit Support, Blackbaud Institute, https://institute.blackbaud.com/asset/giving-in-an-election-year; Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, Giving USA Spotlight: Characteristics of American Households that Give to Charitable and Political Organizations. Giving USA, Spotlight Issue 3, 2012.

  43. Charitable Giving Around the 2016 Election: Does Gender Matter?, Women’s Philanthropy Institute, 2018, http://hdl.handle.net/1805/17475

    , givingusa.org
  44. Richard Rubin, “Democratic Candidates’ Wealth Tax Plans Would Shake Up Billionaire Philanthropy,” The Wall Street Journal, November 6, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-candidates-wealth-tax-plans-would-shake-up-billionaire-philanthropy-11573050551

  45. Richard Rubin, “Democratic Candidates’ Wealth Tax Plans Would Shake Up Billionaire Philanthropy,” The Wall Street Journal, November 6, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-candidates-wealth-tax-plans-would-shake-up-billionaire-philanthropy-11573050551; Howard Gleckman, “A Wealth Tax Will Encourage More Spending By the Rich—And Maybe More Political Donations,” Tax Policy Center, October 31, 2019, https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/wealth-tax-will-encourage-more-spending-rich-and-maybe-more-political-donations

    , givingusa.org
  46. Richard Rubin, “Democratic Candidates’ Wealth Tax Plans Would Shake Up Billionaire Philanthropy,” The Wall Street Journal, November 6, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-candidates-wealth-tax-plans-would-shake-up-billionaire-philanthropy-11573050551

  47. Carolyn Mollen, “Consider Tax Policy in Year-End Appeals,” Independent Sector, December 20, 2017, https://independentsector.org/news-post/consider-taxpolicy-year-end-appeals/

    , January 10, 2019
  48. Giving USA 2018: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2017, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

    , 2018, publicpolicy.umd.edu
  49. Ruth McCambridge, “With Donor Households Declining, Will Universal Charitable Deduction Advance in Congress?” Nonprofit Quarterly, December 4, 2019, https://nonprofitquarterly.org/with-donor-households-declining-will-universal-charitable-deduction-advance-in-congress/

    , 2018, afpfep.org
  50. Only the percentage changes for projected giving in 2020 and 2021 are reported in The Philanthropy Outlook 2020 & 2021.

  51. RMSE is a standard measure of forecast quality, with lower values of the RMSE indicating greater predictive ability. See the Guide to the Philanthropy Outlook Model at www.PhilanthropyOutlook.com for the formula.

    , 2018, ustrustaem.fs.ml.com
  52. Only the percentage changes for projected giving in 2020 and 2021 are reported in The Philanthropy Outlook 2020 & 2021.

    , September 2016, census.gov
  53. Also referred to as “explanatory variables.”

    , September 2016, census.gov
  54. There are several terms used for the various personal consumer expenditures in The Philanthropy Outlook 2020 & 2021 models. Please refer to Table 2b to view these terms.

  55. “Chapter 5: Personal Consumption Expenditures,” Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, November 2017, https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/methodologies/nipa-handbook-all-chapters.pdf#page=90

    , 2018, ustrustaem.fs.ml.com