References

The rate of change for the year 2020 is relative to the year 2019. The rate of change for the year 2021 is relative to the year 2020.

“Error Term,” Investopedia, Retrieved Dec. 3, 2016, www.investopedia.com

M.P. Clements, P. H. Franses, and N. R. Swanson, “Forecasting Economic and Financial Time-Series with Non-Linear Models,” International Journal of Forecasting, 20(2), 2004, 169-183; R. Fildes and S. Makridakis, “The Impact of Empirical Accuracy Studies on Time Series Analysis and Forecasting,” International Statistical Review/Revue Internationale de Statistique, 63(3), 1995, 289-308.

Comparison data are drawn from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org. The figures are all in inflation-adjusted dollars. The 10-year, 25-year, and 40-year averages are shown in Table 1 of this report.

Justin Pritchard, “Bank Stress Tests,” The Balance, March 4, 2019, https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-a-bank-stress-test-4165161

Historical averages reported in The Philanthropy Outlook are in comparison to a national charitable dataset going back to 1975, as published by Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org. The figures are all in inflation-adjusted dollars (2018). Prior-year projections are not included in this report.

Data for years prior to 2019 come from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

Data for years prior to 2019 come from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2019 come from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

Data for non-itemized giving come from the Philanthropy Panel Study, the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, http://www.philanthropy.iupui.edu/research-and-news, and Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

John J. Havens, Mary A. O’Herlihy, and Paul G. Schervish, “Charitable Giving: How Much, by Whom, to What, and How?” in The Nonprofit Sector: A Research Handbook, Edition 2, eds. Walter W. Powell and Richard Steinberg, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2006, 542–567; Pamela Wiepking and René Bekkers, “Who Gives? A Literature Review of Predictors of Charitable Giving, Part Two,” Voluntary Sector Review, 2012, 3(2), 217–245; Russell N. James and Deanna L. Sharpe, “The Nature and Causes of the U-Shaped Charitable Giving Profile,” Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 2007, 36(2), 218–238; The Philanthropy Panel Study, Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, 2010, 2012, www.philanthropy.iupui.edu

“Chapter 5: Personal Consumption Expenditures,” Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, October 2009, https://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipahandbookch5.pdf

Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2019 come from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

Growth in charitable giving is often driven by prior-year growth in specific economic variables, especially for foundation giving.

This is one hypothesis. Foundations will adopt various strategies given funding priorities.

Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2019 come from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

Growth in charitable giving is often driven by prior-year growth in specific economic variables. For estate giving, this is true for household and nonprofit net worth.

Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2019 come from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

Note that these generalizations are based on national-level data and are not necessarily indicative of a single corporation’s philanthropy program or strategy.

Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2019 come from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2019 come from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

Prior-year projections are not included in this report. Data for years prior to 2019 come from Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

Justin Pritchard, “Bank Stress Tests,” The Balance, March 4, 2019, https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-a-bank-stress-test-4165161

“S&P 500 Stock Price Index (S&P 500),” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, RED(R) Economic Data, 2018, retrieved April 2019, http://research.stlouisfed.org;  “Gross Domestic Product,” Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, 2018, retrieved April 2019, www.bea.gov

BLS Spotlight on Statistics: The Recession of 2007-2009, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012, https://www.bls.gov/spotlight/2012/recession/pdf/recession_bls_spotlight.pdf

Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

We received projections from the Wharton School of Business for multiple variables under a recession similar in scale to the 2007-09 recession. Additional information about the stress test conditions available upon request.

Changes to the Giving Landscape, Indiana Univeristy Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, 2019, https://scholarworks.iupui.edu/bitstream/handle/1805/21217/vanguard-charitable191022.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Howard J. Wall, “The ‘Man-Cession’ of 2008-2009: It’s Big, but It’s Not Great,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Regional Economist, 2009, 4-9, https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/october-2009/the-mancession-of-20082009-its-big-but-its-not-great

Hillary Hoffower, “The Great Recession created a domino effect of financial struggles for millennials—here are 5 ways it shaped the generation,” Business Insider, August 11, 2019, https://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-great-recession-affected-millennials-2019-8

Chelsea J. Clark, Xiao Han, and Una O. Osili, “Heterogeneity and Giving: Evidence from U.S. Households Before and After the Great Recession of 2008,” SAGE Publishing: American Behavioral Scientist, 2019, 63 (14), 1841-1862, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0002764219850859

Jonathan Meer, David Miller, and Elisa Wulfsberg, “The Great Recession and Charitable Giving,” Applied Economic Letters, 2017, 24 (21), 1542-1549, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13504851.2017.1319556

Drew Lindsay, “How America Gives Special Report: Breaking the Charity Habit,” The Chronicle of Philanthropy, October 3, 2017, https://www.philanthropy.com/article/How-America-Gives-Special/241344

Una Osili, Jacqueline Ackerman, and Yannan Li, “Economic Effects on Million Dollar Giving,” Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly, Volume 48, Issue 2, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0899764018800791

H. Daniel Heist and Danielle Vance-McMullen, “Understanding Donor-Advised Funds: How Grants Flow During Recessions,” University of Pennsylvania, 2019, https://www.sp2.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Heist-Vance-McMullen_Understanding-Donor-Advised-Funds_working-paper-002.pdf

Giving USA 2019: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2018, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org; Rob Reich and Christopher Wimer, “Charitable Giving and the Great Recession,” The Russell Sage Foundation and The Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality, 2012, https://inequality.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/CharitableGiving_fact_sheet.pdf

Drew Desilver, “The many ways to measure economic inequality,” Pew Research Center, September 22, 2015, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/09/22/the-many-ways-to-measure-economic-inequality/

Bill Chappell, “U.S. Income Inequality Worsens, Widening To A New Gap,” NPR, September 26, 2019, https://www.npr.org/2019/09/26/764654623/u-s-income-inequality-worsens-widening-to-a-new-gap

The study defines “high income” as households in the top 0.1% of the income distribution in the United States from 1917 to 2012. Nicolas J. Duquette, “Inequality and Philanthropy: High-Income Giving in the United States 1917-2012,” Explorations in Economic History, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3042802

Rob Reich, Just Giving: Why Philanthropy Is Failing Democracy and How It Can Do Better, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2018.

Rob Reich, Just Giving: Why Philanthropy Is Failing Democracy and How It Can Do Better, Princeton University Press, 2018; Anand Giridharadas, Winners Take All: The Elite Charade of Changing the World, Alfred A. Knopf, 2018; Edgar Villanueva, Decolonizing Wealth: Indigenous widsom to heal divides and restore balance, Berrett-Koehler Publishers, 2018.

Giving In An Election Year: How Political Giving Impacts Nonprofit Support, Blackbaud Institute, https://institute.blackbaud.com/asset/giving-in-an-election-year; Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy, Giving USA Spotlight: Characteristics of American Households that Give to Charitable and Political Organizations. Giving USA, Spotlight Issue 3, 2012.

Charitable Giving Around the 2016 Election: Does Gender Matter?, Women’s Philanthropy Institute, 2018, http://hdl.handle.net/1805/17475

Richard Rubin, “Democratic Candidates’ Wealth Tax Plans Would Shake Up Billionaire Philanthropy,” The Wall Street Journal, November 6, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-candidates-wealth-tax-plans-would-shake-up-billionaire-philanthropy-11573050551

Richard Rubin, “Democratic Candidates’ Wealth Tax Plans Would Shake Up Billionaire Philanthropy,” The Wall Street Journal, November 6, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-candidates-wealth-tax-plans-would-shake-up-billionaire-philanthropy-11573050551; Howard Gleckman, “A Wealth Tax Will Encourage More Spending By the Rich—And Maybe More Political Donations,” Tax Policy Center, October 31, 2019, https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/wealth-tax-will-encourage-more-spending-rich-and-maybe-more-political-donations

Richard Rubin, “Democratic Candidates’ Wealth Tax Plans Would Shake Up Billionaire Philanthropy,” The Wall Street Journal, November 6, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-candidates-wealth-tax-plans-would-shake-up-billionaire-philanthropy-11573050551

Carolyn Mollen, “Consider Tax Policy in Year-End Appeals,” Independent Sector, December 20, 2017, https://independentsector.org/news-post/consider-taxpolicy-year-end-appeals/

Giving USA 2018: The Annual Report on Philanthropy for the Year 2017, researched and written by the Indiana University Lilly Family School of Philanthropy and published by Giving USA Foundation, www.givingusa.org

Ruth McCambridge, “With Donor Households Declining, Will Universal Charitable Deduction Advance in Congress?” Nonprofit Quarterly, December 4, 2019, https://nonprofitquarterly.org/with-donor-households-declining-will-universal-charitable-deduction-advance-in-congress/

Only the percentage changes for projected giving in 2020 and 2021 are reported in The Philanthropy Outlook 2020 & 2021.

RMSE is a standard measure of forecast quality, with lower values of the RMSE indicating greater predictive ability. See the Guide to the Philanthropy Outlook Model at www.PhilanthropyOutlook.com for the formula.

Only the percentage changes for projected giving in 2020 and 2021 are reported in The Philanthropy Outlook 2020 & 2021.

Also referred to as “explanatory variables.”

There are several terms used for the various personal consumer expenditures in The Philanthropy Outlook 2020 & 2021 models. Please refer to Table 2b to view these terms.

“Chapter 5: Personal Consumption Expenditures,” Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, November 2017, https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/methodologies/nipa-handbook-all-chapters.pdf#page=90